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Creators/Authors contains: "Núñez_Ocasio, Kelly"

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  1. Abstract. The Congo Basin in Central Africa is one of three convective centers in the tropics, characterized by a high proportion of precipitation produced by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). However, process-level understanding of these systems and their relationship to environmental factors over the Congo Basin remains unclear, largely due to scarce in-situ observations. This study employs the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A), a global cloud-resolving model, to investigate MCSs in this region. Compared to satellite-observed brightness temperature (Tb), MPAS-A realistically simulates key MCS features, allowing a detailed comparison between two mesoscale convective complex (MCC) cases: one over the southern mountainous region (MCC-south) and the other over the northern lowland forests (MCC-north). MCC-south is larger, longer-lived, and moves a longer distance than MCC-north. Our analysis shows that MCC-south is supported by higher thermodynamic energy and more favorable vertical wind shear ahead of the system. The shear extends up to 400 km, explains up to 65 % of the Tb variance, and is well balanced by a moderately strong cold pool. In contrast, MCC-north features weaker, localized shear near the center and a stronger cold pool. The African Easterly Jet helps maintain the shear in both cases, but an overly strong jet may suppress low-level westerlies and weaken convection. These results show how latitude and topography modulate environmental influences on Congo Basin MCS developments. The findings underscore the value of global cloud-resolving models in data-sparse regions for understanding convective systems and their impacts on weather extremes and societal risks. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 25, 2026
  2. Abstract It is well known that African easterly waves (AEWs) can develop into tropical cyclones. However, the processes leading to development are not well understood. To this end, we examine a 38-yr climatology of AEW tracks sorted into developing AEWs (DAEWs) and strong nondeveloping AEWs (SNDAEWs). Wave-centered composites for tracks in the eastern Atlantic (40°–10°W, 5°S–30°N) and West African monsoon regions (10°W–20°E, 5°S–30°N) reveal that DAEWs occur over a more humid background state in both regions. The more humid environment causes DAEWs to exhibit heavier precipitation and wave amplification via vortex stretching. Examination of the column moist static energy (MSE) budget reveals that DAEWs exhibit stronger radiative heating and more moistening via horizontal MSE advection than SNDAEWs. The stronger horizontal MSE advection in DAEWs is due to a northeast shift in the maximum MSE relative to the wave axis, causing the northerlies in the wave to advect a higher MSE into the maximum precipitation. In contrast, MSE is maximum near the center of NDAEWs, making the moistening of the rainfall by horizontal MSE advection weaker. DAEWs exhibit stronger radiative heating per unit of rainfall relative to NDAEWs, suggesting that cloud-radiative feedbacks are stronger in these systems. The sum of horizontal MSE advection and radiative heating explains the buildup in MSE seen over the rainy region of the DAEWs that is not seen in SNDAEWs. These results underscore the importance of moisture, cloud–radiation interactions, and horizontal MSE advection in tropical cyclone (TC) development over these regions. Significance StatementAfrican easterly waves are the most common precursors of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Despite significant progress in understanding the processes that distinguish waves that develop into tropical cyclones versus those that do not, important gaps in knowledge remain. In this study, we employed a wave-centered compositing scheme and the moist static energy budget to understand the differences between easterly waves that develop and the strongest nondeveloping waves. Our results show that waves that develop into tropical cyclones occur in a more humid environment where less dry air is transported toward the wave’s rainy region. The more humid environment is also associated with stronger rainfall as well as stronger radiative heating in developing waves, the latter which favors the buildup of moisture in developing waves. Our results underscore the importance of water vapor and its horizontal distribution in determining the development of African easterly waves. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2026